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The Nature Conservancy-PERSPECTIVES: Restorative Aquaculture for Nature and Communities
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KEY TAKEAWAYS: There is a pressing need to provide food for people within planetary limits—including new approaches that actively restore ecosystem health; A body of research conducted by TNC scientists and partners demonstrates that aquaculture can help restore ocean health, as well as support economic development and food production in coastal communities worldwide—if the right practices are deployed in the right places; A set of six clear principles and implementation roadmaps—agreed upon by scientists from leading organizations across the globe—now provides guidance to help industries, governments and communities develop aquaculture in a way that actually benefits nature; Ecological and economic studies show these benefits can be significant, and spatial analysis has identified the regions around the world most suited for restorative aquaculture. Taken together, this body of information shows how and where to get the most benefit from restorative aquaculture.
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News & Events
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The New Era Of Climate Risk Disclosure
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In February of this year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made clear in no uncertain terms that corporations have a duty to disclose risks faced through poten- tial climate change. Yet many boards remain unaware of what constitutes a “material” climate risk, or just how broad the scope and potential impact truly are.
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Climate Science Documents
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The Next Dust Bowl
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Drought is the most pressing problem caused by climate change. It receives too little attention, says Joseph Romm.
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Climate Science Documents
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The outcome is in the assumptions: analyzing the effects on atmospheric CO2 levels of increased use of bioenergy from forest biomass
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Recently, several studies have quantified the effects on atmospheric CO2 concentration of an increased harvest level in forests. Although these studies agreed in their estimates of forest productivity, their conclusions were contradictory. This study tested the effect of four assumptions by which those papers differed. These assump- tions regard (1) whether a single or a set of repeated harvests were considered, (2) at what stage in stand growth harvest takes place, (3) how the baseline is constructed, and (4) whether a carbon-cycle model is applied. A main finding was that current and future increase in the use of bioenergy should be studied considering a series of repeated harvests. Moreover, the time of harvest should be determined based on economical principles, thus taking place before stand growth culminates, which has implications for the design of the baseline scenario. When the most realistic assumptions are used and a carbon-cycle model is applied, an increased harvest level in forests leads to a permanent increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Keywords: atmosphere, bioenergy, carbon, climate change, Faustmann, impulse response functions
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Climate Science Documents
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The payoff of conservation investments in tropical countryside
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The future of biodiversity and ecosystem services hinges on har- monizing agricultural production and conservation, yet there is no planning algorithm for predicting the efficacy of conservation investments in farmland. We present a conservation planning framework for countryside (working agricultural landscapes) that calculates the production and conservation benefits to the current baseline of incremental investments. Our framework is analogous to the use of reserve design algorithms. Unlike much countryside modeling, our framework is designed for application in data- limited contexts, which are prevalent. We apply our framework to quantify the payoff for Costa Rican birds of changing farm plot and border vegetation. We show that installing windbreaks of native vegetation enhances both bird diversity and farm income, espe- cially when complementing certain crop types. We make predic- tions that differ from those of approaches currently applied to agri-environment planning,: e.g., although habitat with trees has lower local species richness than farm plot habitats (1– 44% lower), replacing any plot habitat with trees should boost regional rich- ness considerably. Our planning framework reveals the small, targeted changes on farms that can make big differences for biodiversity.
biodiversity conservation planning countryside biogeography ecological-economic models matrix
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Climate Science Documents
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The Perfect Ocean for Drought
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The 1998 –2002 droughts spanning the United States, southern Europe, and South- west Asia were linked through a common oceanic influence. Cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm SSTs in the western tropical Pacific and Indian oceans were remarkably persistent during this period. Climate models show that the climate signals forced separately by these regions acted synergistically, each contributing to widespread mid-latitude drying: an ideal scenario for spatially expansive, synchronized drought. The warmth of the Indian and west Pacific oceans was unprecedented and consistent with greenhouse gas forcing. Some implications are drawn for future drought.
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Climate Science Documents
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The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
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Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation ex- tremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extra- tropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
global warming hydrological cycle rainfall extreme events
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The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer ‘‘cold-blooded’’ animals against climate warming
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Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodi- versity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to trans- late broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of in- creased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most ‘‘cold-blooded’’ terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (al- though this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on ther- moregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals’ capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase mainte- nance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.
Australia biophysical model climate change terrestrial ectotherm GIS
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The potential transient dynamics of forests in New England under historical and projected future climate change
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Projections of vegetation distribution that incorporate the transient responses of vegetation to climate change are likely to be more efficacious than those that assume an equilibrium between climate and vegetation. We examine the non-equilibrium dynamics of a temperate forest region under historic and projected future climate change using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We parameterized LPJ-GUESS for the New England region of the United Sates utilizing eight forest cover types that comprise the regionally dominant species. We developed a set of climate data at a monthly-step and a 30-arc second spatial resolution to run the model. These datasets consist of past climate observations for the period 1901–2006 and three general circulation model projections for the period 2007–2099. Our baseline (1971–2000) simulation reproduces the distribution of forest types in our study region as compared to the National Land Cover Data 2001 (Kappa statistic00.54). Under historic and nine future climate change scenarios, maple-beech-basswood, oaks and aspen- birch were modeled to move upslope at an estimated rate of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 myr−1 from 1901 to 2006, and continued this trend at an accelerated rate of around 0.5, 0.9 and 1.7 myr−1 from 2007 to 2099. Spruce-fir and white pine-cedar were modeled to contract to mountain ranges and cooler regions of our study region under projected future climate change scenarios. By the end of the 21st century, 60% of New England is projected to be dominated by oaks relative to 21% at the beginning of the 21st century, while northern New England is modeled to be dominated by aspen-birch. In mid and central New England, maple-beech-basswood, yellow birch-elm and hickories co-occur and form novel species associations. In addition to warming-induced northward and upslope shifts, climate change causes more complex changes in our simulations, such as reversed conversions between forest types that currently share similar bioclimatic ranges. These results underline the importance of considering community interactions and transient dynamics in modeling studies of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.
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The Present and Future Possibilities of Landscape Scale Conservation: AppLCC Ethnographic Study Video of Presentation
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The Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) program was created under a secretarial order to develop regional conservation partnerships – under the Department of the Interior – that aimed to coordinate regional conservation planning in response to climate change impacts. Because they were partner-driven efforts, each of the 22 LCCs followed a distinct trajectory and implemented diverse projects, meaning that there is value in exploring how specific LCCs, such as the AppLCC, approached regional conservation. This study assesses the successes, limitations, and impacts of the AppLCC, with the aim of providing insights for future regional conservation partnership.
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Integrating Cultural Resource Preservation at a Landscape Level
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Cultural Resources Fellowship
