-
Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios
-
Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature in- crease have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and tem- perature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced- complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5–4.4°C over 1990 levels or 0.3–3.4°C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of 1.4°C (with a full range of 0.5–2.8°C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is sub- stantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
climate climate policy stabilization integrated assessment scenario
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota
-
The earth is in the midst of a pronounced warming trend and temperatures in Minnesota, USA, as elsewhere, are projected to increase. Northern Minnesota represents the southern edge to the circumpolar distribution of moose (Alces alces), a species intolerant of heat. Moose increase their metabolic rate to regulate their core body temperature as temperatures rise. We hypothesized that moose survival rates would be a function of the frequency and magnitude that ambient temperatures exceeded the upper critical temperature of moose. We compared annual and seasonal moose survival in northeastern Minnesota between 2002 and 2008 with a temperature metric. We found that models based on January temperatures above the critical threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent survival and explained .78% of variability in spring, fall, and annual survival. Models based on late-spring temperatures also explained a high proportion of survival during the subsequent fall. A model based on warm-season temperatures was important in explaining survival during the subsequent winter. Our analyses suggest that temperatures may have a cumulative influence on survival. We expect that continuation or acceleration of current climate trends will result in decreased survival, a decrease in moose density, and ultimately, a retreat of moose northward from their current distribution.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global change-type drought
-
Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (4 °C) shortened the time to drought- induced mortality in Pinus edulis (pin ̃ on shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumu- lative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in pre- cipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demon- strate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exac- erbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off.
biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks drought impacts global-change ecology Pinus edulis carbon starvation
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temperature variations in lake ice in central Alaska, USA
-
In winter 2002/03 and 2003/04, thermistors were installed in the ice on two shallow ponds in central Alaska in order to obtain data on ice temperatures and their response to increasing and decreasing air temperatures, and flooding and snow-ice formation. Snow depth and density, and ice thickness were also measured in order to understand how they affected and were affected by ice temperature variability. The lowest ice temperature (–15.58C) and steepest temperature gradient (–39.88C m–1) occurred during a 9 week period in autumn when there was no snow on the ice. With snow on the ice, temperature gradients were more typically in the range –20 to –58C m–1. Average ice temperatures were lower during the warmer, first winter, and higher during the cooler, second winter because of differences in the depth and duration of the snow cover. Isothermal ice near the freezing point resulted from flooding and snow-ice formation, and brief episodes of warm weather with freezing rain. Under these circumstances, congelation-ice growth at the bottom of the ice cover was interrupted, even reversed. It is suggested that the patterns in temperatures brought about by the snow-ice formation and rain events may become more prevalent due to the increase in frequency of these events in central Alaska if temperature and precipitation change as predicted by Arctic climate models.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temperature-growth divergence in white spruce forests of Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory, and adjacent regions of northwestern North America
-
We present a new 23-site network of white spruce ring-width chronologies near boreal treeline in Old Crow Flats, Yukon Territory, Canada. Most chronologies span the last 300 years and some reach the mid-16th century. The chro- nologies exhibit coherent growth patterns before the 1930s. However, since the 1930s, they diverge in trend and exhibit one of two contrasting, but well-replicated patterns we call Group 1 and Group 2. Over the instrumental per- iod (1930–2007) Group 1 sites were inversely correlated with previous-year July temperatures while Group 2 sites were positively correlated with growth-year June temperatures. At the broader northwestern North America (NWNA) scale, we find that the Group 1 and Group 2 patterns are common to a number of white spruce chronolo- gies, which we call NWNA 1 and NWNA 2 chronologies. The NWNA 1 and NWNA 2 chronologies also share a sin- gle coherent growth pattern prior to their divergence (ca. 1950s). Comparison of the NWNA 1/NWNA 2 chronologies against gridded 20th-century temperatures for NWNA and reconstructed northern hemisphere sum- mer temperatures (AD 1300–2000) indicates that all sites responded positively to temperature prior to the mid-20th century (at least back to AD 1300), but that some changed to a negative response (NWNA 1) while others maintained a positive response (NWNA 2). The spatial extent of divergence implies a large-scale forcing. As the divergence appears to be restricted to the 20th century, we suggest that the temperature response shift represents a moisture stress caused by an anomalously warm, dry 20th-century climate in NWNA, as indicated by paleoclimatic records. However, because some sites do not diverge and are located within a few kilometres of divergent sites, we specu- late that site-level factors have been important in determining the susceptibility of sites to the large-scale drivers of divergence.
Keywords: boreal treeline, dendroclimatology, divergence, Old Crow Flats, ring-width, white spruce, Yukon Territory
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temporal dynamics of a commensal network of cavity-nesting vertebrates: increased diversity during an insect outbreak
-
Network analysis offers insight into the structure and function of ecological
communities, but little is known about how empirical networks change over time during
perturbations. ‘‘Nest webs’’ are commensal networks that link secondary cavity-nesting
vertebrates (e.g., bluebirds, ducks, and squirrels, which depend on tree cavities for nesting)
with the excavators (e.g., woodpeckers) that produce cavities. In central British Columbia,
Canada, Northern Flicker (Colaptes auratus) is considered a keystone excavator, providing
most cavities for secondary cavity-nesters. However, roles of species in the network, and
overall network architecture, are expected to vary with population fluctuations. Many
excavator species increased in abundance in association with a pulse of food (adult and larval
beetles) during an outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), which peaked
in 2003–2004. We studied nest-web dynamics from 1998 to 2011 to determine how network
architecture changed during this resource pulse.Cavity availability increased at the onset of the beetle outbreak and peaked in 2005. During and after the outbreak, secondary cavity-nesters increased their use of cavities made by five species of beetle-eating excavators, and decreased their use of flicker cavities. We found low link turnover, with 74% of links conserved from year to year. Nevertheless, the network
increased in evenness and diversity of interactions, and declined slightly in nestedness and
niche overlap. These patterns remained evident seven years after the beetle outbreak,
suggesting a legacy effect. In contrast to previous snapshot studies of nest webs, our dynamic approach reveals how the role of each cavity producer, and thus quantitative network architecture, can vary over
time. The increase in interaction diversity with the beetle outbreak adds to growing evidence
that insect outbreaks can increase components of biodiversity in forest ecosystems at various
temporal scales. The observed changes in (quantitative) network architecture contrast with the
relatively stable (qualitative) architecture of empirical mutualistic networks that have been
studied to date. However, they are consistent with recent theory on the importance of
population fluctuations in driving network architecture. Our results support the view that
models should allow for the possibility of rewiring (species switching partners) to avoid
overestimation of secondary extinction risk.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Temporal stability in forest productivity increases with tree diversity due to asynchrony in species dynamics
-
Theory predicts a positive relationship between biodiversity and stability in ecosystem properties, while diversity is expected to have a negative impact on stability at the species level. We used virtual experiments based on a dynamic simulation model to test for the diversity–stability relationship and its underlying mechanisms in Central European forests. First our results show that variability in productivity between stands differing in species composition decreases as species richness and functional diversity increase. Second we show temporal stability increases with increasing diversity due to compensatory dynamics across species, supporting the biodiversity insurance hypothesis. We demonstrate that this pattern is mainly driven by the asynchrony of spe- cies responses to small disturbances rather than to environmental fluctuations, and is only weakly affected by the net biodiversity effect on productivity. Furthermore, our results suggest that com- pensatory dynamics between species may enhance ecosystem stability through an optimisation of canopy occupancy by coexisting species.
Keywords
Asynchrony, biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, ecosystem predictability, forests, gap model, insurance hypothesis, productivity, stability, structural equation model.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Ten years of vegetation assembly after a North American mega fire
-
Altered fuels and climate change are transforming fire regimes in many of Earth’s biomes. Postfire reassembly of vegetation – paramount to C storage and biodiversity conservation – frequently remains unpredictable and complicated by rapid global change. Using a unique data set of pre and long-term postfire data, combined with long-term data from nearby unburned areas, we examined 10 years of understory vegetation assembly after the 2002 Hayman Fire. This fire was the largest wildfire in recorded history in Colorado, USA. Resistance (initial postfire deviance from pre- fire condition) and resilience (return to prefire condition) declined with increasing fire severity. However, via both resistance and resilience, ‘legacy’ species of the prefire community constituted >75% of total plant cover within 3 years even in severely burned areas. Perseverance of legacy species, coupled with new colonizers, created a persis- tent increase in community species richness and cover over prefire levels. This was driven by a first-year increase (maintained over time) in forbs with short life spans; a 2–3-year delayed surge in long-lived forbs; and a consistent increase in graminoids through the 10th postfire year. Burning increased exotic plant invasion relative to prefire and unburned areas, but burned communities always were >89% native. This study informs debate in the literature regarding whether these increasingly large fires are ‘ecological catastrophes.’ Landscape-scale severe burning was catastrophic from a tree overstory perspective, but from an understory perspective, burning promoted rich and productive native understories, despite the entire 10-year postfire period receiving below-average precipitation.
Keywords: disturbance, exotic species, fire severity, Hayman Fire, Pinus ponderosa, resilience, resistance, succession, vegetation change
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Tenneesse River Basin Network-Network News: Issue 45|September 2023
-
Your Network News | That's A Wrap!
Located in
News & Events
/
Conservation Newsletters
/
Tennessee River Basin Network Newsletter
-
Tennessee Aquarium Conservation Institute - Freshwater Biodiversity
-
The warm waters of the southeastern United States are home to an amazing diversity of animals and habitats. The Tennessee Aquarium Conservation Institute (TNACI) works to protect and sustain the region's natural treasures and bring people of all ages closer to nature. Help us celebrate and care for these riches in our backyards.
Located in
Training
/
Videos and Webinars
