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Conserving the Stage: Climate Change and the Geophysical Underpinnings of Species Diversity
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Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns.
If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R2 = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an
independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5–95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P,0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions.
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Protected areas in Borneo may fail to conserve tropical forest biodiversity under climate change
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Protected areas (PAs) are key for conserving rainforest species, but many PAs are becoming increasingly
isolated within agricultural landscapes, which may have detrimental consequences for the forest biota
they contain. We examined the vulnerability of PA networks to climate change by examining connectivity
of PAs along elevation gradients. We used the PA network on Borneo as a model system, and examined
changes in the spatial distribution of climate conditions in future. A large proportion of PAs will not
contain analogous climates in future (based on temperature projections for 2061–2080), potentially
requiring organisms to move to cooler PAs at higher elevation, if they are to track climate changes. For
the highest warming scenario (RCP8.5), few (11–12.5%; 27–30/240) PAs were sufficiently topographically
diverse for analogous climate conditions (present-day equivalent or cooler) to remain in situ. For the
remaining 87.5–89% (210–213/240) of PAs, which were often situated at low elevation, analogous climate
will only be available in higher elevation PAs. However, over half (60–82%) of all PAs on Borneo are too
isolated for poor dispersers (<1 km per generation) to reach cooler PAs, because there is a lack of connecting
forest habitat. Even under the lowest warming scenario (RCP2.6), analogous climate conditions will
disappear from 61% (146/240) of PAs, and a large proportion of these are too isolated for poor dispersers
to reach cooler PAs. Our results suggest that low elevation PAs are particularly vulnerable to climate
change, and management to improve linkage of PAs along elevation gradients should be a conservation
priority
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Climate change and the ecologist
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The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 4 °C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a Grand Challenge in ecology.
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A phylogenetic perspective on the distribution of plant diversity
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Phylogenetic studies are revealing that major ecological niches are more conserved through evolutionary history than expected, implying that adaptations to major climate changes have not readily been accomplished in all lineages. Phylogenetic niche conservatism has important consequences for the assembly of both local communities and the regional species pools from which these are drawn. If corridors for movement are available, newly emerging environments will tend to be filled by species that filter in from areas in which the relevant adaptations have already evolved, as opposed to being filled by in situ evolution of these adaptations. Examples include intercontinental disjunctions of tropical plants, the spread of plant lineages around the Northern Hemisphere after the evolution of cold tolerance, and the radiation of northern alpine plants into the Andes. These observations highlight the role of phylogenetic knowledge and historical biogeography in explanations of global biodiversity patterns. They also have implications for the future of biodiversity.
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Non-equilibrium succession dynamics indicate continued northern migration of lodgepole pine
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This study provides evidence of range expansion under current climatic conditions of an indigenous species with strong ecosystem effects. Surveys of stands along the northern distribution limit of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in central Yukon Territory, Canada showed consistent increases in pine dominance following fire. These patterns differed strongly from those observed at sites where pine has been present for several thousand years. Differences in species thinning rates are unlikely to account for the observed increases in pine dominance. Rates of pine regeneration at its range limits were equivalent to those of spruce, indicating a capacity for rapid local population expansion. The study also found no evidence of strong climatic limitation of pine population growth at the northern distribution limit. We interpret these data as evidence of current pine expansion at its range limits and conclude that the northern distribution of lodgepole pine is not in equilibrium with current climate. This study has implications for our ability to predict vegetation response to climate change when populations may lag in their response to climate.
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Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species
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Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (20% in adjusted D2, 8% and 3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.
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Dissecting insect responses to climate warming: overwintering and post-diapause performance in the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula, under simulated climate-change conditions
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The effect of simulated climate change on overwintering and postdiapause
reproductive performance is studied in Nezara viridula (L.) (Heteroptera:
Pentatomidae) close to the species’ northern range limit in Japan. Insects are reared
from October to June under quasi-natural (i.e. ambient outdoor) conditions and in
a transparent incubator, in which climate warming is simulated by adding 2.5 ◦
C to
the ambient temperatures. Despite the earlier assumption that females of N. viridula
overwinter in diapause, whereas males do so in quiescence, regular dissections show
that the two sexes overwinter in a state of true diapause. During winter, both sexes are
dark-coloured and have undeveloped reproductive organs. Resumption of development
does not start until late March. During winter, the effect of simulated warming on the
dynamics and timing of physiological processes appears to be limited. However, the
warming significantly enhances winter survival (from 27–31% to 47–70%), which
is a key factor in range expansion of N. viridula. In spring, the effect of simulated
warming is complex. It advances the post-diapause colour change and transition from
dormancy to reproduction. The earlier resumption of development is more pronounced
in females: in April, significantly more females are already in a reproductive state
under the simulated warming than under quasi-natural conditions. In males, the
tendency is similar, although the difference is not significant. Warming significantly
enhances spring survival and percentage of copulating adults, although not the percentage
of ovipositing females and fecundity. The results suggest that, under the expected
climate-warming conditions, N. viridula will likely benefit mostly as a result of
increased winter and spring survival and advanced post-diapause reproduction. Further
warming is likely to allow more adults to survive the critical cold season and contribute
(both numerically and by increasing heterogeneity) to the post-overwintering population
growth, thus promoting the establishment of this species in newly-colonized
area
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Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries
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Global marine fisheries are underperforming economically because of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation. Added to these threats is the looming challenge of climate change. Observations, experiments and simulation models show that climate change would result in changes in primary productivity, shifts in distribution and changes in the potential yield of exploited marine species, resulting in impacts on the economics of fisheries worldwide. Despite the gaps in understanding climate change effects on fisheries, there is sufficient scientific information that highlights the need to implement climate change mitigation
and adaptation policies to minimize impacts on fisheries.
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Climate-induced changes in the small mammal communities of the Northern Great Lakes Region
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We use museum and other collection records to document large and extraordinarily rapid
changes in the ranges and relative abundance of nine species of mammals in the northern
Great Lakes region (white-footed mice, woodland deer mice, southern red-backed voles,
woodland jumping mice, eastern chipmunks, least chipmunks, southern flying squirrels,
northern flying squirrels, common opossums). These species reach either the southern or
the northern limit of their distributions in this region. Changes consistently reflect
increases in species of primarily southern distribution (white-footed mice, eastern
chipmunks, southern flying squirrels, common opossums) and declines by northern
species (woodland deer mice, southern red-backed voles, woodland jumping mice, least
chipmunks, northern flying squirrels). White-footed mice and southern flying squirrels
have extended their ranges over 225 km since 1980, and at particularly well-studied sites
in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, small mammal assemblages have shifted from numerical
domination by northern species to domination by southern species. Repeated resampling
at some sites suggests that southern species are replacing northern ones rather than
simply being added to the fauna. Observed changes are consistent with predictions from
climatic warming but not with predictions based on recovery from logging or changes in
human populations. Because of the abundance of these focal species (the eight rodent
species make up 96.5% of capture records of all forest-dwelling rodents in the region and
70% of capture records of all forest-dwelling small mammals) and the dominating
ecological roles they play, these changes substantially affect the composition and
structure of forest communities. They also provide an unusually clear example of change
that is likely to be the result of climatic warming in communities that are experienced by
large numbers of people.
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Adaptation: Planning for Climate Change and Its Effects on Federal Lands
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National forest managers are charged with tackling the effects of climate change on the natural resources
under their care. The Forest Service National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change and the Climate
Change Performance Scorecard require managers to make significant progress in addressing climate
change by 2015. To help land managers meet this challenge, Forest Service scientists conducted three case studies on national forests and adjacent national parks and documented a wide range of scientific issues and solutions. They summarized the scientific foundation for climate change adaptation and made the information accessible to land managers by creating a climate change adaptation guidebookand web portal. Case study teams discovered that collaboration among scientists and land managers is crucial to adaptation planning, as are management plans targeted to the particular ecosystem conditions and management priorities of each region. Many current management practices are consistent with climate change
adaptation goals. Because timely implementation is critical, strategies are in development at the national
level to speed the implementation of science-based climate change adaptation processes in national
forests throughout the country.
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