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Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty
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The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.
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Reports & Documents
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Demonstration of the Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI)
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The earth’s rapidly changing climate requires substantial adjustments to existing strategies for conserving natural systems. Managers need a better understanding of factors that contribute to the vulnerability of ecosystems and plant communities in order to formulate new adaptation strategies. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Ecosystems and Habitats documents series of indicators of vulnerability to climate change.
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News & Events
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Events
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US Fish and Wildlife Service - Science Seminar Series - Modeling Population Persistence Across the Streamscape - March 22 - National LCC Event
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Conservation managers are facing ever-increasing challenges as urban sprawl, land use changes, and climate change accelerate threats to fish and wildlife populations and their habitats. The Science Seminar Series provides employees with learning opportunities to keep pace with changing science relevant to their work. The Science Seminar Series will seek researchers from around the Northeast Region and the country to address topics of interest identified by Northeast Region employees, either by live broadcast or via webinar.
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News & Events
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Events
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Northeast Climate Science Center Fall Colloquium: Translating Climate Science for Resource Managers
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What stakeholders need to know about the relationships between water resources and climate change.
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News & Events
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Events
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2013 Climate Leadership Conference
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The Climate Leadership Conference will provide networking opportunities with federal and state government officials, business and industry leaders, and non-profit experts. Innovative ideas and best practices will be presented related to GHG reduction opportunities, energy consumption and diversification, climate mitigation, and adaptation strategies.
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News & Events
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Events
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Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Assessments of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation
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Rising sea levels coupled with population growth along coasts make climate adaptation planning an imperative. The framework of ecosystem services can help managers understand how alternative management and climate scenarios are likely to affect a broad range of services delivered to people from coastal ecosystems.
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News & Events
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Events
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Providing the Science for Natural and Cultural Resource Adaptation to Climate Change
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An Overview and Update of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center and the DOI Climate Science Centers
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News & Events
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Events
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4th Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference
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At the Crossroads: Looking Toward the Future in a Changing Environment
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News & Events
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Events
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Addressing Climate-related Uncertainty - new NCTC course
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The course will provide participants with a foundation in structured decision making in the context of natural resource management problems addressing climate-related uncertainty. It will also illustrate applications to water resource management, mitigation, and endangered species decisions.
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News & Events
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Events
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Northeast Climate Science Center Webinar
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A Case Study for Identifying Climate Change Refugia
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News & Events
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Events
